
It has been said that history repeats itself. This is perhaps not quite correct; it merely rhymes.
– Theodor Reik, 1965, Curiosities of the Self: Illusions We Have about Ourselves
I am reminded frequently of the above quote when I look at the state of the commercial real estate (“CRE”) market today, and track the first of what will likely be many more repurchase or “putback” actions being filed in the commercial mortgage-backed securities (“CMBS”) space. Interestingly, the quote itself seems to exemplify its underlying messaging, as several thinkers have said similar things, and there is some controversy over its attribution. Namely, while this quote is often misattributed to Mark Twain, there is no record of him including it in any of his writings. Instead, it seems to have first appeared in a 1965 essay by Psychoanalyst Theodor Reik, where it was preceded by the prescient words, “There are recurring cycles, ups and downs, but the course of events is essentially the same, with small variations.” Twain, for his part, did say something similar, and even more colorful: “History never repeats itself, but the Kaleidoscopic combinations of the pictured present often seem to be constructed out of the broken fragments of antique legends.”
History never repeats itself, but the Kaleidoscopic combinations of the pictured present often seem to be constructed out of the broken fragments of antique legends.
– Mark Twain
Both quotes seem particularly appropriate at this moment, and their implications have prompted me to return to blogging after a years-long hiatus, during which the representation of clients in the structured finance and distressed investment space has taken precedence over continuing with The Subprime Shakeout. However, as I’ve seen an increasing number of red flags and signals of distress in the CMBS market (particularly involving office, retail, and lodging properties), it has compelled me to begin writing again and highlight the similarities in the market conditions that were fomenting in the residential mortgage-backed securities (“RMBS”) market in the run-up to the Global Financial Crisis (“GFC”) of 2007 and 2008.
Namely, in my structured finance practice at Perry Johnson Anderson Miller & Moskowitz (“PJAMM”), we are seeing many of the same “rhyming” indicators of the overextension of credit to the CRE market generally, along with revelations of potential systemic fraud and misrepresentations in the offering documents for financial products like CMBS that are backed by commercial real estate. Most prominently allegations of widespread inflation of net operating income (“NOI”) figures provided at origination by borrowers across the CMBS market suggest that some of the same cavalier attitudes towards underwriting that infected the structured finance market for residential mortgages have now extended to commercial mortgages. And while such misrepresentations or omissions in the offering documents typically go unnoticed or unenforced during good times, once there is a downturn (or even just a leveling-out) in the market, losses typically follow, prompting investors to investigate breaches of representations and warranties as a basis for legal action to mitigate those losses. Indeed, as we’ll discuss later in this article, we are just beginning to see CMBS trustees and servicers filing mortgage repurchase or “putback” actions in the CMBS space that read very much like the wave of RMBS putback cases we predicted and then helped litigate and settle over the past 18 years.
Level Setting – CRE Market Context
This is the precipice at which I believe we stand today in the CRE and CMBS markets. Commercial lending and securitization of the resulting mortgages continued to expand throughout the late 2010s and early 2020s, with a peak CRE lending volume of $816 billion in 2022. The CRE market was thus slow to adjust to foundational changes in the commercial property space that began after the turn of the millennium (think online shopping and pressure on brick and mortar retailers), and accelerated with the outbreak of COVID-19 (with the normalization of online shopping, the rise of remote work, and the drop in utilization of office space). As interest rates rose rapidly during 2022 and the cost of debt increased—while NOI has fallen for many commercial properties— it has become progressively more difficult for borrowers to refinance commercial loans, particularly those structured with interest-only payments due during the life of the loan and balloon payments due at maturity (as are commonly utilized in the commercial property space).
Counterintuitively, commercial loan origination spiked running up to and through the COVID pandemic (at a time when commercial property would have been particularly unprofitable, with revenues often unable to cover even interest payments on commercial loans), which bubble is putting additional pressure on the CRE market now. Given these conditions, it is only a matter of “when” and not “if” the pressure will ultimately lead to a severe downturn in the market and defaults in the commercial lending space.
Though delinquencies and defaults have certainly increased over the past couple of years, particularly in office space, we haven’t yet seen the “crash” that many folks keeping an eye on this market have predicted based on the CRE market downturn, the number of distressed loans, and the relatively high interest rates that would stand in the way of a smooth recalibration. Part of this stems from market participants’ willingness to engage in what is commonly known as “extend and pretend.” Essentially, when these short-term, often 5- or 10-year loans reach maturity, and the principal portion of the loan comes due, lenders and servicers have thus far been largely willing to work with borrowers on creative solutions whereby the maturity date of a severely delinquent or soon-to-be defaulted loan is kicked out 12- to 18-months, possibly with the infusion of some additional capital, an interest rate adjustment, and/or a deferred payment plan.
However, these creative solutions do not tend to resolve the underlying, structural problem, and instead become more akin to “kick the can down the road” measures. Barring a positive change to the market environment, the fundamental issue remains: many commercial properties are cash-flowing (and therefore are valued) far less than was expected at the time of origination and reaching maturity in an environment in which refinance options are limited.
While “extend and pretend” measures do allow property owners and investors to spread out potential defaults and avoid a credit crunch, giving them some measure of control over when and where the defaults, foreclosures, and/or legal actions should occur, they cannot continue forever. Indeed, while there was a spike in loans hitting maturity in 2025, there is another wall of looming maturities that will need to be worked out in 2026 and into 2027. Needless to say, some market institutions that predicted a relatively robust recovery last year are still waiting. As Deloitte put it in its recent 2026 CRE Outlook report, “[W]e anticipated that 2025 could mark a recovery for the global CRE industry … As we write a year later, it hasn’t exactly played out that way.”
We anticipated that 2025 could mark a recovery for the global CRE industry … As we write a year later, it hasn’t exactly played out that way.
– Deloitte Center for Financial Services, 2026 Commercial Real Estate Outlook, September 29, 2025
The Rise of CMBS Repurchase Actions
Meanwhile, the CMBS putback actions have officially begun, signaling the limits of “extend and pretend.” In March 2025, Wells Fargo, as trustee of the J.P. Morgan Chase Commercial Mortgage Securities Trust 2019-MFP, filed suit against J.P. Morgan, as the seller on the deal, for breaches of loan-level representations and warranties. Wells Fargo v. JPMorgan II, Case No. 25cv1943 (SDNY, filed Mar. 10, 2025). The allegations in the complaint, if true, indicate the presence of rot in the foundation of the CRE market.
For instance, Wells Fargo alleges that JPMorgan knowingly and intentionally utilized fraudulent financial information as part of the subject loan’s underwriting, allegedly inflating the NOI on the underlying properties by 25%, and then sold bonds to investors based on the fraudulent figures. JPMorgan’s motion to dismiss Wells Fargo’s primary claim—breach of contract for failure to repurchase the underlying loan—is still pending before the Court, and relies heavily on whether the complaint adequately alleges JPMorgan had “actual knowledge” of the issue, as the representation and warranty Wells Fargo is alleging was breached is limited by a “knowledge qualifier” (requiring the loan seller to have actual knowledge of the breach at the time of subject loan’s origination for the representation to be actionable). Notwithstanding the pending motion to dismiss, fact discovery is well underway in the case and expert discovery is set to be completed by June of this year.
Already, discovery in that case has yielded some telling disclosures. During a dispute over Wells Fargo’s efforts to obtain documents from and depose Brian Baker, a key member of JPMorgan’s credit committee that Wells Fargo alleges directly knew about problems with the financial information submitted by the borrower (but approved the loan anyway), Wells Fargo submitted to the court internal JPMorgan communications revealing knowledge of systemic issues at one of the largest players in the CMBS space. In the instant message communication snapshotted below, Deborah Lipman, a member of the JPM credit committee, noted in May of 2019—less than a month before the subject loan was put before the JPM credit committee for final approval—that JPM, and others involved with the loan, were engaging in some of the same practices with CMBS that had led to the residential real estate crash of 2007 and 2008:

This statement highlights, not just that JPM apparently had concerns about its commercial mortgage lending and securitization processes with respect to this one at-issue loan prior to securitizing it, but that at least some decisionmakers at JPM appeared to have concerns about something much more widespread: that “we are doing 2007 all over again.” Indeed, if this abandonment of basic diligence is occurring at one of the largest commercial lenders in the United States, as has been alleged, it suggests these practices were and are likely quite widespread, as lending is historically subject to a race-to-the-bottom. Further bolstering that conclusion, JPMorgan has now alleged in its own letter to the court that SitusAMC, an affiliate of Situs Holdings, LLC (the special servicer who is bringing this repurchase case on behalf of Wells Fargo), assisted JPMorgan with its pre-closing due diligence on the subject loan and was aware of the allegedly inflated NOI and other issues with the borrower’s financial information itself! See Wells Fargo v. JPM II, Defendant’s Letter to the Court (Doc. No. 85) at 1. All of this suggests that these issues were not isolated, but rather were symptoms of more systemic problems in the commercial loan industry.
Right on cue, another CMBS repurchase action was filed earlier this month, styled Computershare Trust Company, as Trustee of the BBCMS 2023-C19 trust, v. Starwood Mortgage Capital, LLC, Case No. 26cv01695 (SDNY, filed Mar. 2, 2026). While still in its early stages, there are a couple of interesting points we can take away from the initial filings:
- We know the underlying loan-level representation and warranty breach is not based on fraudulent financial information, but rather on the condition of the underlying property, specifically a parking garage sitting beneath a mixed-use (office/retail) commercial space.
- The representation and warranty that is alleged to have been breached, as in Wells Fargo v. JPMorgan II, is limited by a knowledge qualifier.
- The loan seller here, Starwood, is an affiliate of the Chetrit Financial Group, and Chetrit is involved in Wells Fargo v. JPMorgan II, discussed directly above, as a defendant. The Chetrit Group has been the focus of mounting legal trouble over the past year-plus, and one of its founders, Meyer Chetrit, was just indicted (along with an indicted unarraigned co-defendant, and their companies, including The Chetrit Group) and charged with harassment of two rent-regulated tenants. (Note: All of this smoke is enough to suggest that if you are invested in any underperforming CMBS or commercial real estate assets (particularly any involving the Chetrit Group, or its affiliates), it would be worth investigating the circumstances and determining whether any action should be taken.)
Takeaways and Action Items
Mortgage repurchase actions in the commercial space show particular promise, as they can take advantage of the well-trodden ground and well-established case law that has formed through the flood of RMBS putback cases litigated over the past two decades, while also frequently featuring several advantages. For example, some CMBS deals allow certificateholders to initiate dispute resolution proceedings—including, potentially, more expedient arbitration and mediation processes—rather than requiring a minimum percentage of holders (usually 25%) to band together to direct and indemnify the CMBS trustee to take action. This suggests that for every putback dispute that has come to light due to the filing of litigation, there are likely many more disputes that are being, or already have been, resolved behind the scenes.
In addition, many CMBS deals are single-asset, single-borrower deals (so-called “SASB” deals), or feature only a small number of loans as collateral, making the reunderwriting process much more efficient and affordable than RMBS deals with thousands of loans to reunderwrite. But we’ve also learned from RMBS putback actions that statutes of limitations are short and unforgiving, and they run from the closing date of a deal, not from the date that breaches are discovered. Indeed, the RMBS investors who acted quickly in the wake of the crisis tended to be far more successful than those who waited, as statute of limitations defenses proved to be the primary (and sometimes only) defense to well-pled RMBS putback cases.
[We’ve] learned from RMBS putback actions that statutes of limitations are short and unforgiving, and they run from the closing date of a deal, not from the date that breaches are discovered. Indeed, the RMBS investors who acted quickly in the wake of the crisis tended to be far more successful than those who waited, as statute of limitations defenses proved to be the primary (and sometimes only) defense to well-pled RMBS putback cases.
It is not just the filing of these few repurchase actions that indicates a broader wave is coming, as research and analysis by my team PJAMM has revealed a number of concerning trends in the CRE space. Through the tracking of new filings in New York County, we are seeing an uptick in the type of debt collection and foreclosure matters that tend to foreshadow broader losses and repurchase actions in structured debt instruments.
We are also tracking commercial lenders’ reporting of disputes over repurchase demand activity pursuant to SEC Rule 15Ga1, and have noted a gradual, but ever-growing increase in repurchase activity reporting over the last several quarters. Earlier this year, a commercial real estate lender brought an action in federal court against several affiliates of a well-known, national commercial real estate appraiser (mentioned sarcastically by Deborah Lipman in the same string of instant messages referenced above), as well as an individual appraiser, alleging defective appraisals of the commercial property backing the at-issue loan, which in turn improperly inflated the value of the commercial property (importantly, CRE appraisals take into account NOI in order to understand the value of any given commercial space). Meanwhile, CRE borrowers have begun to bring actions against CMBS trusts and special servicers claiming bad faith in the loan modification process when they became delinquent on their payments, including allegations that special servicers exploited this distress to extort fees that were contrary to the best interests of the borrower and the securitization vehicle.
While we’ve highlighted just a few examples here, the broader CMBS space is continuing to see an increase in key indicators of distress. These include signs of the fraud that typically results from an overheated market and then drives both its collapse and the strongest legal claims for recoveries, not just in individual cases like Wells Fargo v. JPM, but more broadly across the industry. Tellingly, in 2024, we saw the GSEs publish new guidelines in an attempt to keep fraudulent loans out of their pipelines amid rising delinquencies and fraud concerns, while in 2025, we saw revelations of fraud uncovered by Fannie Mae following a multiyear investigation into the CRE on its books. Given the GSEs’ critical role in finding a path to recovery after the RMBS crash, the exposing of fraud by Fannie and Freddie in the CRE and CMBS spaces should be carefully noted as a precursor of things to come. In sum, several data points serve as a harbinger that additional CRE distress and a new wave of CRE-related litigation is likely on the horizon.
Are these the “broken fragments of antique legends” that Twain was talking about in constructing the “Kaleidoscopic combinations of the pictured present,” or the rhyming of history referenced by Reik, signaling a potential CRE crisis along the lines of the GFC? Only time will tell, but certainly these various signs should not be ignored by anyone invested in commercial real estate (or considering making such an investment). In particular, rising delinquencies, defaults, or losses in CRE portfolios should not be assumed to be simply the inevitable product of a market downturn (or that they will be straightened out given enough time), but should be investigated as the potential consequence of misrepresentations at origination or offering that hid deeper problems. Otherwise, the default outcome will be that the investors left holding CRE derivatives—who typically relied on the deal parties who originated the loans and structured the deal to perform ordinary due diligence—will be saddled with the losses caused by the non-performing commercial real estate assets backing their investments, regardless of whether they were the product of misrepresentations or a market downturn. It is incumbent upon these investors (and insurers) to make sure, as The Who once sang, that “We don’t get fooled again”!
Author’s Note: Special thanks to Nathan van Loben Sels for his significant contributions to the research and writing of this post. With this post, I plan to begin blogging again on a semi-regular basis, expanding The Subprime Shakeout beyond the residential mortgage market to discuss issues in commercial and consumer lending. Stay tuned for future articles addressing the collapse of several consumer lenders in the subprime auto loan space.

Isaac Gradman is a partner at Perry Johnson Anderson Miller & Moskowitz in Santa Rosa, California, where he specializes in structured finance litigation, investment fraud, and complex commercial and financial disputes.
